What will be the mortgage rate in 2026

Mortgages will become noticeably easier for family budgets In 2026, the monthly market mortgage burden may decrease significantly. If the Ministry of Finance's forecast of a 5 percentage point drop in rates is implemented, the average payment for a one-room apartment in cities with a population of one million will decrease by almost a quarter. If today the purchase of a one-bedroom apartment with a mortgage costs an average of 74 thousand rubles per month, then by the end of 2026 the payment may decrease to 58 thousand rubles. Savings are about 16 thousand rubles per month, or more than 190 thousand rubles per year. What will be the reason for the decrease The key factor is the expected decrease in market mortgage rates: 21% per annum — in early 2026 16% per annum is the projected level by the end of the year All other things being equal (the same apartment price, 20% down payment, standard loan term), a reduction in the rate leads to a 21.7% decrease in payment on average. , Where the payment will decrease the most The greatest effect is expected in the cities with the most expensive real estate: Moscow — payment will decrease by 44.5 thousand rubles (from 204.8 to 160.3 thousand) St. Petersburg - minus 25.3 thousand rubles Kazan — minus 21 thousand Нижний Nizhny Novgorod — minus 16.4 thousand . ₽ In other millionaires, the reduction will average 11-14 thousand rubles per month. The minimum reduction is expected in cities with more affordable housing — Volgograd and Chelyabinsk (about 10-11 thousand rubles). , Visualization The graph above shows a comparison of monthly payments: at a rate of 21% and when reduced to 16% It is clearly seen that even a relatively small percentage drop has a tangible financial effect, especially in large cities. How was the apartment calculated: 35 sq. m, secondary market initial payment: 20% prices: median offers according to market data payment calculation: mortgage calculator rate: 21% → 16% the price of the apartment is unchanged , What 's next The State Duma does not rule out a more optimistic scenario — a reduction in mortgage rates to 12% if the key rate drops to 9-10%. At the same time, the Bank of Russia still predicts an average key rate in 2026 in the range of 13-15%.