Next crisis: whether real estate prices will go down?
Due to the next economic crisis as a result of which the income of the population decreased, construction volumes increased, and the mortgage became almost inaccessible to many, it is worth expecting gradual depreciation of square meter for 10%. The head of agency of elite real estate Alexey Maralin shared the opinion of rather this situation.
Unlike 2008 present crisis, most likely, will be long as it is caused by a number of fundamental tendencies.
Also it isn't clear yet, what is the time it will last and as it will be reflected in the market of real estate. It is necessary to mention and sharp decline of ruble but how it will affect the market, to tell still difficult. The market became ruble, calculations in currency stood aside. And income in the basic in rubles gained by Russians, and they didn't grow. But there is also a psychological factor: the rise in price of such goods as household appliances, products, cars can entail increase in prices for housing.
Decrease in purchasing power will become one of the most serious factors of an economic crisis, certainly.
It is connected with decrease real dokhodov growth of expenses of the population owing to inflation. The mortgage is the only source allowing to raise funds on the market but as the Central Bank raised a key rate, a situation with this type of crediting in a freezing stage so far.
The role loan a sredstvna the market of real estate is very serious. In the left year thanks to attraction of proceeds of credit about 45% of transactions in primary market and to 30% - on secondary were made. At sharp reduction of delivery of mortgage loans, as will occur at a rate of 20%, it is possible to expect drop in prices approximately on a third as it was in 2008 when from the market almost completely ushlizayemny means. At preservation of a former key rate by the Central Bank, the volume of mortgage loans in the secondary market can be reduced by 2-3 times.
Whether it will affect the prices of "vtorichka", depends on inflation.
Buyers will postpone acquisition of housing indefinitely, or to look for objects cheaper or instead of the planned purchase three-room, to buy the two-room.
Allegedly, cost and the multiroom apartments which hanged in listing will decrease. Low-liquid objects doesn't remain in the market at all. On average the square meter will fall in price for 10%, and the cost of elite housing will decrease to 25%.
Whether change of cost of secondary housing will affect the prices of the primary? Besides, unlike 2008, today's scheme of interference of the markets more difficult. More than a half of transactions of the secondary market fall on housing comfort and a business class which isn't enough in primary market. For the rest in the secondary market exchange schemes are carried out: change with surcharge of the room on apartments, and also housing of the smaller square at the big. Respectively, this segment of the secondary market directly doesn't compete with primary where now the most part of objects of economy class passed.
Whether the situation with a mortgage will affect primary market? Of course, banking institutions are interested in delivery of the credits, and builders – in realization of apartments under construction. In this regard they will invent in common the programs accepted for buyers. For this purpose a lot of time therefore the change in price for objects under construction can develop according to two scenarios will be required. For builders favourably quickly to reduce the cost as it will allow to support sales volume at the level of the last year's.
But, most likely, developers will choose other way. Taking into account a huge number of offers in objects under construction, they should reduce the prices by 10-15% all the same. And opportunities for this purpose are available for them as at the end of 2014 housing cost in new buildings in a readiness stage already increased by 9-13%.
Whether shareholders in a crisis situation risk?
After all there is a probability of a stop of construction or bankruptcy of the builder. Certainly, construction companies will have certain difficulties, generally because sales volumes will decrease. It is unlikely they will be able to realize at least 50% of volume of last year. Difficulties will arise and at those who pays the credits in currency.
Despite current situation, bankruptcies, most likely, won't be, because of the good sales in 2014 which allowed builders to save up means and it is essential to increase the stability.
I consider that 2015 will be not a lung in the sphere of real estate, but flexible in relation to the consumer.
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