The gap between new and secondary buildings has reached 30%: who will win in 2026

The Russian real estate market continues to split. By the end of winter 2026, the price difference between primary and secondary housing in the 16 largest cities averaged 30.4%. This is a record high. In February alone, the gap widened by another 2.5 percentage points. The data is provided by a study of the Alice AI neural network based on Yandex search analytics for apartments. We're figuring out what's behind the numbers and how to make money (or save money) from it. Why is the gap growing? Two multidirectional trends The secret is that markets move in different directions.: · Secondary housing has fallen in price by 1.6% in a month. Mortgages without government support bite, sellers are forced to give in. · New buildings continue to rise in price, albeit modestly — plus 0.3% per month. Developers keep prices down through alternative schemes (tranche mortgages, installments, subsidized rates). Bottom line: the "secondary" is falling, the "primary" is standing still or creeping up. The gap is inevitably widening. Where is the most acute situation? Map by city Analysts have identified three groups of cities. 1. The fastest gap growth (this is where the market storms the most) · Rostov-on-Don · Kazan · Yekaterinburg In these megacities, secondary housing is becoming cheaper more actively than the national average, and new buildings are standing still. Sellers of old apartments have the hardest time here. 2. The absolute leader in the size of the gap (here the difference between the new and the old is the maximum) · Chelyabinsk · Krasnodar · Omsk In these cities, it is especially profitable to buy "secondary", and it is especially painful to sell. 3. Where the gap has narrowed (market anomaly) Only three out of 16 cities showed a decrease in the gap.: · Moscow · St. Petersburg · Chelyabinsk (here is the only example among the leading cities) In the capitals, the markets are tightly overheated on both sides, so the difference is smoothed out. Chelyabinsk has a local history that requires a separate study. What does this mean for the agent's clients? Three strategies Moving from numbers to money. Each type of client has its own logic. To the secondary seller: don't expect a miracle Your main competitor is not the neighboring house, but a new residential complex 500 meters away with a mortgage at 5% from the developer. To sell now, the price must be at least 25-30% lower than the new building. Or get ready to wait 1.5–2 years until the market levels out. To the secondary buyer: your time has come The 1.6% drop in a month is a trend, not an accident. If you find an apartment in good condition and the area, bargain. A discount of 10-15% of the original price is now the norm. Sellers have already begun to realize the reality. To the buyer of a new building: look not at the price tag, but at the conditions Yes, an overpayment of 30% relative to the "secondary" looks scary. But developers will not reduce prices dramatically — the escrow system does not allow. Your advantage is not in the price of the meter, but in the terms of the loan. A tranche mortgage, a subsidized rate, and a low down payment are the real savings. The market is splitting, and the rules of the game are changing every month. The 30% gap is not a "horror story" from the news, but a harsh reality. Today, buying a secondary without a discount is a mistake, and buying a new building without analyzing mortgage programs is a risk. I monitor the price dynamics in each neighborhood on a daily basis and know where the seller will really give in, and where the developer gives the best conditions for a tranche mortgage. Don't guess on the coffee grounds. Contact me and I'll find an option that won't hit your wallet in six months. Vesta Salii - 8918 558 3040 --- Data: a study of the Alice AI neural network based on the Yandex thematic search (based on materials from RBC Real Estate)